Mike ClayESPN Author
CloseFantasy soccer, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
Member of Professional Soccer Writers of America
Founding director of Professional Soccer Focus Fantasy
2013 FSTA award winner for many correct preseason rankings
The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at the least one point out of every of the league’s 32 groups. Although effectivity can be mentioned a lot, the column will lean closely on utilization information, as quantity is king (by far) in fantasy soccer. Use these tidbits to make the perfect waiver-wire, commerce and lineup choices for the upcoming week and past. Remember to verify again every week of the season for a brand new model of the Fantasy 32.
Observe that information from Monday Evening Soccer may not instantly be mirrored in charts.
All through the under team-by-team rundowns, I will be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy factors. Think about a league wherein gamers are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs each move/carry/goal and converts the information into one quantity that signifies a participant’s alternative to attain fantasy factors, or his “anticipated” fantasy level whole. For instance, if a participant has an OFP of 14.5, it implies that a league common participant who noticed the identical workload in the identical location on the sector would have scored 14.5 fantasy factors. FORP is the distinction between a participant’s precise fantasy level whole and his OFP. OTD works the identical manner, besides as a substitute of fantasy factors, it is touchdowns. Quantity is king in fantasy soccer, so this is not info you need to overlook.
That mentioned, right here is the post-Week 13 OFP Leaderboard:
Week 13 OFP Leaderboard
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Christian McCaffrey, RB1731-142. Leonard Fournette, RB1830-123. Alshon Jeffery, WR292814. DJ Moore, WR1925-65. Lamar Jackson, QB2225-36. James White, RB3825137. Jack Doyle, TE1924-58. Robert Woods, WR302379. Tom Brady, QB2423110. Anthony Miller, WR23230
Subsequent, listed here are the gamers who exceeded their OFP by the biggest margin this previous week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy manufacturing transferring ahead, assuming they see the same workload:
Exceeded their OFP by the biggest margin in Week 13
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Deshaun Watson, QB2911182. DeVante Parker, WR3519163. Taysom Hill, QB194154. Kenny Golladay, WR2612145. James Washington, WR218136. James White, RB3825137. Derrius Guice, RB2815138. Cole Beasley, WR2311129. Courtland Sutton, WR23121110. Raheem Mostert, RB231310
And these are the gamers who fell wanting their OFP by the biggest margin final week, and thus you should not be too fast to overreact to their efficiency when making lineup, commerce or waiver choices:
Fell wanting their OFP by the biggest margin in Week 13
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Christian McCaffrey, RB1731-142. Aaron Jones, RB720-133. Leonard Fournette, RB1830-124. Jamison Crowder, WR314-115. Mike Evans, WR921-126. Phillip Dorsett II, WR413-97. Odell Beckham Jr., WR616-108. Tyrell Williams, WR211-99. Zach Ertz, TE514-910. Gardner Minshew II, QB1119-Eight
Chase Edmonds returned from harm on Sunday, nevertheless it did not appear to matter. Edmonds did not play a single snap, with Kenyan Drake as a substitute remaining Arizona’s function again. Drake racked up 13 carries and 5 targets whereas taking part in 79% of the snaps. David Johnson remained the backup with 4 carries and a pair of targets on 25% of the snaps. Drake has been on the sector for 79% of Arizona’s snaps throughout his 4 video games with the staff and has three top-21 fantasy weeks to point out for it. He’s a high quality RB2 possibility, although he must be downgraded this week in opposition to a Steelers protection that’s permitting the fewest fantasy factors to operating backs over the previous six weeks. Johnson, in the meantime, is not more than a handcuff, and Edmonds could be dropped.
Devonta Freeman returned from harm and racked up 64 yards on 21 touches whereas taking part in 66% of the snaps in opposition to New Orleans on Thanksgiving. It was a disappointing effort from a participant who has cleared 51 dashing yards in solely one in every of his previous seven video games however who additionally has managed 16-plus fantasy factors throughout 4 of his previous seven video games because of dealing with a beneficiant share of the backfield touches. Freeman has reached 19 touches throughout 5 of his previous eight video games, which is actually sufficient to maintain him within the weekly RB2 dialogue. Freeman ought to be in lineups this week in opposition to a Panthers protection that has allowed a league-high 22 touchdowns and the second-most fantasy factors to operating backs this season.
The thought with Lamar Jackson was that even in a really robust matchup he nonetheless could be a strong fantasy quarterback due to the great worth he brings to the desk along with his legs. That proved true on Sunday, as Jackson was held to 105 yards and one landing via the air however added 16 carries for 101 yards and a rating in opposition to the 49ers’ excellent protection. Jackson’s 22.Three fantasy factors truly made for a down recreation by his requirements (he averaged 27.9 per recreation throughout Weeks 1-12); however he nonetheless has completed sixth or higher amongst quarterbacks throughout 9 of 12 outings this season. Week 13 was merely affirmation that Jackson is a must-start no matter matchup.
Cole Beasley caught six of his seven targets for 110 yards and one landing in his “revenge recreation” in Dallas on Thanksgiving. It was Beasley’s second consecutive sturdy efficiency after he posted a 6-76-1 receiving line on 9 targets in opposition to Denver in Week 12. Beasley is trending up, having scored one landing in 5 of his previous seven video games. He additionally has reached 74 receiving yards in three of his previous 4, after failing to clear three catches or 41 yards in 4 consecutive video games. Beasley’s current utilization and surge in manufacturing is sufficient to put him on the flex radar, even in a tricky matchup in opposition to Baltimore this weekend.
Curtis Samuel obtained again on monitor with a Four-65-1 receiving line on seven targets in opposition to Washington on Sunday. The large day comes after three consecutive video games with 35 or fewer receiving yards. Samuel hasn’t had a lot fantasy upside (even after Sunday, he solely has one weekly end higher than 19th), however he does have six touchdowns to his identify, and he sits 28th on the place in fantasy factors. Samuel ranks fifth amongst receivers with 470 move routes run, however his 50% catch fee is worst and his 6.Three yards per goal fourth worst amongst 66 certified extensive receivers this season. He stays a high quality flex possibility regardless of the weak effectivity.
Anthony Miller had a profession day on Thanksgiving, hauling in 9 of 13 targets for 140 yards. At 89%, Miller truly was third amongst Chicago’s extensive receivers in snaps (Allen Robinson II, 94%; Javon Wims, 90%), however the second-year receiver paced the unit in the entire key fantasy classes. Miller was a nonfactor through the first half of the season, averaging Three.Three targets and Four.1 fantasy factors per recreation throughout Weeks 1 to 10. Issues have modified lately, nonetheless, as he’s averaging 10.7 targets and 16.Zero fantasy factors throughout his previous three outings. Miller has but to attain a landing this season after discovering the tip zone seven instances as a rookie, however the huge enhance in targets is sufficient to launch him into the weekly flex dialogue.
Andy Dalton returned to the beginning lineup on Sunday after three video games on the bench. The quarterback change was excellent news for the fantasy prospects of Auden Tate. Tate averaged Eight.Eight targets, Four.Three receptions, 64.2 yards and 11.Four fantasy factors per recreation throughout six video games as a full-time participant with Dalton throughout Weeks Three to eight. Tate totaled an Eight-102-Zero receiving line on 15 targets throughout Ryan Finley’s three begins, averaging 6.1 fantasy factors per recreation through the span. Tate obtained again on monitor with a Four-66-Zero receiving line on seven targets in opposition to the Jets on Sunday. Tate is correct again on the flex radar so long as Dalton is underneath middle and A.J. Inexperienced stays out.
Odell Beckham Jr.’s disappointing season continued on Sunday, because the 27-year-old receiver was restricted to a few catches for 29 yards on six targets. The 5.9 fantasy factors had been Beckham’s third fewest in a single recreation this season, although simply his lowest since Week 5. Beckham now has completed outdoors the highest 25 receivers in fantasy factors throughout 9 of his previous 11 video games. Regardless of the weak manufacturing in opposition to what has been a brutal schedule, Beckham nonetheless is seeing loads of targets (Eight.5 per recreation) and may stay in lineups in opposition to shaky Bengals and Cardinals defenses over the following two weeks.
A Cowboys’ extensive receiver named Bryant scored a landing on Thanksgiving, nevertheless it in fact was the lesser identified Ventell Bryant (no relation to Dez). Contemplating that Dallas’ offense ranks sixth in touchdowns, you is perhaps questioning if Bryant ought to be a precedence on waivers this week. The reply isn’t any. Bryant was restricted to at least one snap in Thursday’s contest, which marked solely his ninth snap this season. Bryant, a 6-foot-Three, 205-pound undrafted free-agent signing out of Temple, primarily performs particular groups and stays buried behind Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb and Tavon Austin on the extensive receiver depth chart. He ought to solely be monitored within the deepest of dynasty leagues.
Rookie quarterback Drew Lock made his NFL debut on Sunday. The second-round decide confirmed properly early with a pair of landing passes to Courtland Sutton however leveled off from there and ended up finishing 18 of 28 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns with one interception and dashing for 15 yards. Lock unfold the ball out properly, focusing on Sutton and Jeff Heuerman 5 instances; Royce Freeman 4 instances; Noah Fant, Phillip Lindsay and DaeSean Hamilton thrice; Tim Patrick twice; and Andrew Beck as soon as. Sutton is the one Denver pass-catcher who must be locked into lineups, and Lock ought to solely be rostered in dynasty and two-QB leagues.
T.J. Hockenson caught six passes for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns on 11 targets in opposition to Chicago on Thanksgiving. The tough outing marks the primary time since 2008 wherein a good finish was focused 11 or extra instances however did not clear 18 receiving yards. Hockenson is headed to injured reserve with an harm and, although his heavy utilization would possibly appear to be signal for his replacements, observe that Detroit’s every-down tight finish entered Week 13 with a grand whole of 1 catch for six yards on 4 targets throughout his earlier two video games. He additionally failed to attain a landing or attain double-digit fantasy factors since Week Four. Jesse James and Logan Thomas are price fliers solely within the deepest of two-tight finish leagues. Within the meantime, hold 2020 breakout candidate Hockenson stashed in dynasty.
Inexperienced Bay Packers
Davante Adams posted a 6-64-2 receiving line on 10 targets in opposition to the Giants on Sunday. Adams entered Week 12 with zero touchdowns in six video games, however he now has scored thrice in his previous two outings. Adams is averaging a large 29.6% goal share this season (just under final season’s 29.7%) and has at the least 9 targets and 6 receptions in 5 consecutive video games. Adams struggled via accidents and unhealthy landing luck earlier this season, however he now’s proper again the place he was in 2018 as one of many prime weekly performs at extensive receiver.
Darren Fells scored one other landing on Sunday, and he now has seven scores in 12 video games this season. Regardless of the scoring success, Feels nonetheless is not a dependable fantasy possibility. The veteran tight finish hasn’t cleared three targets, two receptions or 24 yards in a recreation since Week Eight, and 4 of his touchdowns got here in two video games (Weeks 5 and eight). Fells ought to solely be in your radar in deeper leagues that begin two tight ends.
Jonathan Williams appeared to have solidified his function as Marlon Mack’s handcuff with an inexplicable 29 touches in Week 12, however the journeyman crashed again to earth in opposition to the Titans on Sunday. Williams was restricted to 14 snaps, as in comparison with 30 every for Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. Williams was held to 14 yards on eight carries, which nearly assuredly led to the demotion. Wilkins (56 yards on 13 touches) was an enormous issue after seemingly being benched in Week 12, and Hines (40 yards and one landing on six touches) continued to make noise off the bench. Mack is anticipated to return in Week 14, but when he stays out, this backfield is clearly a state of affairs to keep away from.
Gardner Minshew II stepped in for Nick Foles and accomplished 16 of 27 passes for 147 yards and one landing with one interception on Sunday. It is to be decided if the rookie will stay the starter, however one would count on that to be the case contemplating Foles’ struggles and the Jaguars’ Four-Eight report. Although he figures to breathe life again into the likes of Dede Westbrook and DJ Chark Jr. (as he did Sunday), Minshew does not must be added on waivers. The sixth-round decide completed solely three of his eight begins as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, together with just one higher than eighth. He’ll be properly off the streaming radar in opposition to Chargers move protection in Week 14.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Sammy Watkins went with no catch on three targets in opposition to Oakland on Sunday. It marks the second time in his profession wherein he was focused greater than twice and did not catch a move. After dealing with at the least eight targets throughout six of his first seven video games this season, Watkins has been focused precisely thrice in back-to-back outings. Watkins hasn’t scored a landing since Week 1 and has fallen wanting 55 yards throughout six of his previous eight video games. Watkins belongs on benches (if not waivers), particularly with a really robust remaining schedule that features the Patriots, Broncos, Bears and Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers
Hunter Henry was held to 2 catches for 10 yards and 0 touchdowns on three targets in Denver on Sunday. There isn’t any must panic. Previous to the down recreation, Henry had produced at the least Eight.7 fantasy factors in all seven of his 2019 video games, together with at the least 13.Zero factors in 5 of his previous six video games. Henry is the No. Eight scoring fantasy tight finish this season regardless of lacking 4 video games. He ought to be locked into lineups whatever the Chargers’ struggles.
Los Angeles Rams
Robert Woods was focused a career-high 19 instances on Sunday, which allowed the veteran receiver a 13-172-Zero receiving line. Woods has been crimson sizzling as of late, having managed at the least 9 targets, six receptions and 95 yards in three consecutive video games. Woods hasn’t caught a landing since Week 16 of the 2018 season however has reached double-digit targets in eight of 15 video games since that time. Woods’ huge day vaulted him to 22nd amongst extensive receivers in fantasy factors, and his current enhance in targets retains him within the weekly WR3 combine.
Kalen Ballage went down with an harm after 11 snaps on Sunday. Patrick Laird was the clear subsequent man up, taking part in 35 snaps within the recreation, which was properly forward of Myles Gaskin’s 14. Laird was a nonfactor as a rusher in opposition to the Eagles’ sturdy run protection (10 carries for five yards), however he discovered the tip zone and added 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 targets. Gaskin ran for 20 yards on two carries and added one 6-yard catch. Assuming Ballage misses time, Laird is clearly the selection and can get sufficient run to warrant flex consideration in deep PPR leagues. Gaskin and reserve De’Lance Turner are not more than desperation stashes in very deep leagues.
Dalvin Prepare dinner went down with a shoulder harm on Monday Evening Soccer after registering 12 touches on 24 snaps. The harm is reportedly minor and Prepare dinner is anticipated to play in Week 14, however ought to he take per week off, Alexander Mattison would be the clear subsequent man up. Mattison performed 24 snaps on Monday, which was properly forward of Ameer Abdullah (three snaps) and Mike Boone (two). The rookie totaled 73 yards on eight touches and has been efficient in reduction of Prepare dinner all season lengthy, averaging Four.Eight yards per carry and eight.Zero yards per reception. If Prepare dinner is out, Mattison would undertaking for near 20 touches and would instantly be a part of the RB1 dialog in opposition to Detroit. Add him through waivers simply in case — and people with Prepare dinner ought to clearly have the rookie stashed on their bench.
New England Patriots
Mohamed Sanu Sr. returned from harm on Sunday however was restricted to 18 snaps within the loss to Houston. Sanu labored behind Julian Edelman (72 snaps), Jakobi Meyers (54), Phillip Dorsett II (54) and N’Keal Harry (22). It is potential (doubtless?) Sanu nonetheless wasn’t absolutely wholesome, and it actually is an efficient signal that he was focused on 5 of his 11 move routes. However Sanu is not a participant you possibly can really feel nice about beginning proper now, particularly this week in opposition to a Chiefs protection that’s permitting the fewest fantasy factors to extensive receivers over the previous six weeks. Sanu has cleared 23 receiving yards in one in every of 4 video games since becoming a member of New England.
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill scored a pair of touchdowns in opposition to Atlanta on Thanksgiving, racking up 45 yards on 4 touches and one move try alongside the way in which. Regardless of the large day, Hill is just not a participant you could add on waivers, as “QB” is his solely positional eligibility. Hill is as much as 5 touchdowns on the season, however he has performed solely 17% of the offensive snaps. He has three move makes an attempt, 16 carries and 13 receptions in 12 video games. Hill has failed to succeed in 5 fantasy factors in all however 4 of his outings, and he has zero top-12 fantasy weeks on his résumé.
New York Giants
Kaden Smith was focused eight instances and paced the Giants with six receptions and 70 receiving yards on Sunday. Smith was focused six instances in Week 12, and he has been on the sector for 94% of the offensive snaps because the staff’s Week 11 bye. The sixth-round rookie will revert to the bench as soon as Evan Engram returns, however within the meantime, Smith is seeing sufficient quantity to make him a strong TE2. He will not be an excellent streaming possibility in opposition to the Eagles in Week 14, however hold him in your radar in case Engram misses extra time than anticipated.
New York Jets
Sam Darnold crashed again to earth on Sunday after getting into the week with three consecutive top-seven fantasy finishes. Darnold failed to attain a landing in opposition to the Bengals after accounting for at the least two scores throughout every of his earlier three video games. Darnold has posted 4 top-10 fantasy weeks this season however has completed every of his different 5 begins outdoors the highest 20. Darnold can be a candidate for a bounce-back recreation at house in opposition to Miami in Week 14, however he winds up the season with journeys to Baltimore (fourth-fewest fantasy factors allowed to quarterbacks) and Buffalo (third fewest), in addition to a house date with Pittsburgh (sixth fewest). He’ll be a poor beginning possibility in all three, so he actually does not must be in your roster except you desperately want him as a streaming possibility one final time this week.
The touchdowns have disappeared for Tyrell Williams and with them have gone any hint of fantasy relevance. Williams scored precisely one landing in 5 consecutive video games to open the season, however the veteran receiver was skating on skinny ice with solely 6.Zero targets per recreation through the span. Landing regression to the imply has caught up with him as of late, as Williams has gone 5 consecutive video games with no rating. Williams hasn’t cleared six targets in a recreation and has gone over 48 yards as soon as through the span. That features a season-worst 1-9-Zero receiving line on 4 targets in Kansas Metropolis on Sunday. Williams is finest left on benches, however he does have matchup in opposition to the Titans this week.
Alshon Jeffery returned to motion and posted a 9-137-1 receiving line on 16 targets on Sunday. Jeffery now has posted goal numbers of 6, 9, Eight, 12, 5, 6, Eight and 16 in his eight full video games this season. That Eight.75 per-game common is his highest since becoming a member of the Eagles in 2017. Throughout the eight weeks he has performed in full, Jeffery has 5 touchdowns and sits 10th amongst extensive receivers in fantasy factors. All that comes after Jeffery was fantasy’s No. 21 wideout in 2017 and was 17th as soon as getting back from harm in Week Four in 2018. Carson Wentz’s prime wideout is a strong weekly WR2.
James Washington caught all 4 of his targets for 111 yards and one landing in Sunday’s win over Cleveland. The second-year receiver now has reached 90 yards and scored a landing in three of his previous 4 video games. Washington hasn’t fallen wanting 4 targets throughout his previous seven video games, however he additionally hasn’t gone over seven. Washington has hit a couple of instances as of late, however his modest function in Pittsburgh’s low-scoring offense makes him a dangerous fantasy play. That may particularly be the case if JuJu Smith-Schuster is again within the fold this week. Contemplate Washington a increase/bust flex in 12-team leagues.
San Francisco 49ers
Raheem Mostert exploded for 146 yards and one landing on 19 carries, including eight extra yards on two targets throughout Sunday’s loss in Baltimore. Mostert was the “sizzling hand,” taking part in 71% of the snaps, as in comparison with 19% for Tevin Coleman and 10% for Jeff Wilson Jr. Mostert now’s averaging 6.Three yards per carry over his five-year profession, which simply is highest amongst 74 backs with 90-plus carries through the span. The large recreation doubtless will result in a bigger share of the pie for Mostert transferring ahead, however he’ll be very exhausting to belief in lineups with Coleman and Matt Breida (anticipated again from harm in Week 14) additionally closely concerned. If something, Mostert’s sturdy play simply figures so as to add to the confusion that’s the 49ers’ backfield. Coleman stays the popular flex play in New Orleans this week, however all three backs are dangerous fantasy choices proper now.
Tyler Lockett did not catch any of his three targets on Monday Evening Soccer. Although Lockett could not have been 100% wholesome, he did play 88% of Seattle’s 75 offensive snaps and the tough night time brings him to three-consecutive duds. Lockett was held to 26 yards on 4 targets in Week 10 and 38 yards on two targets in Week 12. It is price noting that the down video games have come in opposition to San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota, who rank 30th, 31st and 26th in fantasy factors allowed to the slot. After all, life will not be a lot best with Jalen Ramsey shadow protection doubtless in Week 14. Lockett stays a top-20 fantasy receiver even after the current hunch, so he’ll be exhausting to bench besides within the shallowest leagues.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Keep in mind Ronald Jones II? Yeah, me neither. The second-year again was restricted to 6 carries on 18 snaps throughout Sunday’s win over the Jaguars. Peyton Barber, in the meantime, performed 26 snaps and posted 44 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 17 carries. Dare Ogunbowale (22 snaps) and T.J. Logan (5) additionally soaked up work, however they mixed for 14 yards on 4 touches. Jones has scored a landing in 5 of his previous 9 video games, however he additionally has been under eight fantasy factors in 4 outings through the span. Jones has some increase to his recreation (greater than 15 factors in three of his previous 5 video games), however his utilization is inconsistent to the purpose that he cannot be trusted as something greater than a borderline flex in 12-team leagues.
Adam Humphries scored a landing on Sunday, and he now has discovered the tip zone in back-to-back video games, after failing to attain even as soon as throughout his first 9 video games with Tennessee. The random touchdowns have been good, however Humphries has a grand whole of six targets throughout his previous three video games and has cleared 25 receiving yards in one in every of his previous 5 outings. Humphries bizarrely has been focused greater than six instances solely as soon as this season (Week Three), and he isn’t a dependable flex possibility.
Derrius Guice exploded for 137 yards and two touchdowns on 12 touches throughout a career-best efficiency at Carolina on Sunday. Although the manufacturing was spectacular, it is a main crimson flag that Guice was restricted to taking part in solely 32% of the snaps. That is in comparison with 37% for Adrian Peterson (13-99-1 dashing line) and 33% for Chris Thompson (29 yards on 4 touches). Guice now has managed contact totals of 13, Eight, 11 and 12 in his 4 video games this season. The sturdy play has but to result in an expanded function, so we should always proceed to count on a three-headed assault. Guice stays restricted to borderline flex territory.