Mike ClayESPN Author
CloseFantasy soccer, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
Member of Professional Soccer Writers of America
Founding director of Professional Soccer Focus Fantasy
2013 FSTA award winner for many correct preseason rankings
The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with not less than one point out of every of the league’s 32 groups. Although effectivity will likely be mentioned loads, the column will lean closely on utilization information, as quantity is king (by far) in fantasy soccer. Use these tidbits to make the most effective waiver-wire, commerce and lineup selections for the upcoming week and past. Make sure to examine again every week of the season for a brand new model of the Fantasy 32.
All through the beneath team-by-team rundowns, I will be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy factors. Think about a league during which gamers are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs each move/carry/goal and converts the info into one quantity that signifies a participant’s alternative to attain fantasy factors, or his “anticipated” fantasy level whole. For instance, if a participant has an OFP of 14.5, it signifies that a league-average participant who noticed the identical workload in the identical location on the sphere would have scored 14.5 fantasy factors. FORP is the distinction between a participant’s precise fantasy level whole and his OFP. OTD works the identical approach, besides as a substitute of fantasy factors, it is touchdowns. Quantity is king in fantasy soccer, so this isn’t info you need to overlook.
That stated, right here is the post-Week 10 OFP Leaderboard:
Week 10 OFP Leaderboard
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Nick Chubb, RB1434-202. Tyreek Hill, WR333303. Dalvin Cook dinner, RB313014. Christian McCaffrey, RB2629-35. Michael Thomas, WR282716. Brian Hoyer, QB626-207. Josh Allen, QB252508. Eric Ebron, TE1125-149. Darius Slayton, WR34231110. Amari Cooper, WR32239
Subsequent, listed below are the gamers who exceeded their OFP by the most important margin this previous week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy manufacturing transferring ahead, assuming they see the same workload:
Exceeded their OFP by the most important margin in Week 10
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Christian Kirk, WR3817202. Daniel Jones, QB3014163. Derrick Henry, RB3317164. Aaron Jones, RB2712155. Lamar Jackson, QB3321136. Patrick Mahomes, QB3018127. Mecole Hardman, WR132118. Darius Slayton, WR3423119. Golden Tate, WR23131010. Marquise Brown, WR1899
And these are the gamers who fell wanting their OFP by the most important margin final week, and thus you should not be too fast to overreact to their efficiency when making lineup, commerce or waiver selections:
Fell wanting their OFP by the most important margin in Week 10
PlayerActual PtsOFPFORP1. Nick Chubb, RB1434-202. Brian Hoyer, QB626-203. Eric Ebron, TE1125-144. Jaylen Samuels, RB717-105. Odell Beckham Jr., WR1120-106. Zach Pascal, WR514-97. Kalen Ballage, RB917-98. Danny Amendola, WR715-99. Nyheim Hines, RB817-810. Philip Rivers, QB1018-Eight
David Johnson returned from harm and was on the sphere for 45% of the offensive snaps on Sunday. That is in comparison with 63% for Kenyan Drake. Neither again had a lot success towards Tampa Bay’s shutdown run protection. Johnson totaled 10 yards on six touches and Drake managed 41 yards on 16 touches. The effectivity will likely be higher in simpler matchups, however the important thing takeaway right here is that, not less than for now, Arizona has turned to a committee assault led by Drake. The ex-Dolphin is the popular fantasy play, however neither needs to be seen as something greater than a flex towards San Francisco in Week 11. This backfield has the makings of a significant headache with Chase Edmonds additionally due again within the subsequent few weeks.
Devonta Freeman went down with an harm after 27 snaps on Sunday, which opened the door for Brian Hill to see the sphere for 36 performs. Hill was extraordinarily busy, dealing with 20 carries and a pair of targets within the upset victory. With Ito Smith on injured reserve, Kenyon Barner restricted to 9 snaps and Qadree Ollison glued to the bench Sunday, it seems clear that Hill would be the function again if Freeman misses time. Hill was already a gorgeous handcuff stash and can push for RB2 worth if known as on to start out. Word that Freeman had produced 4 top-15 fantasy weeks in his 5 video games previous to Sunday.
Marquise Brown acquired again on monitor a bit on Sunday, producing 80 yards and one landing on 4 targets. The landing was Brown’s fourth of the season, although solely his second since Week 1. Equally, Brown reached 80 yards for the third time this season, however for the primary time since Week 2. Brown has reached 17 fantasy factors in three video games, however he has seen 5 or fewer targets and has performed lower than 58% of the snaps in three-straight video games. Brown’s 18 snaps in Week 10 have been his fewest since he performed 12 in Week 1. Brown’s big-play capacity retains him within the flex dialogue, however he is a increase/bust asset with one profession top-12 fantasy week to his identify.
Every week after exploding for 140 yards and a rating on 23 touches, Devin Singletary returned to earth with 50 yards on 11 touches towards Cleveland on Sunday. The excellent news is that Singletary was on the sphere for 69% of the offensive snaps, which greater than doubled Frank Gore’s 31% share. Singletary was focused seven occasions within the recreation and now has three-plus catches in three consecutive video games. Singletary, who’s averaging 6.Four yards per carry, is the clear lead again in Buffalo, and although he’ll sometimes lose a goal-line rating to Gore, the rookie stays within the top-25 combine in fantasy. He is an RB2 lock at Miami this week.
DJ Moore went for 9 receptions for 120 yards on 11 targets at Inexperienced Bay on Sunday. Moore has now produced 100-plus yards in back-to-back video games and has managed 73 or extra receiving yards in six of his 9 video games this season. He sits no decrease than 13th amongst extensive receivers in routes, targets, receptions and receiving yardage. Touchdowns, nonetheless, stay a significant downside space for Moore; he has one this season (2.1 OTD) after scoring twice throughout his total rookie marketing campaign. Scoring apart, Moore is quietly having fun with a breakout sophomore marketing campaign during which he is been focused not less than eight occasions in seven of 9 video games. He needs to be locked into lineups as a high-floor WR2.
Mitch Trubisky tossed three touchdowns on solely 23 move makes an attempt towards Detroit on Sunday. It marks Trubisky’s third recreation this season with not less than two touchdowns, although he has precisely zero scores within the different three full video games. Week 10 marked Trubisky’s first weekly end higher than 12th this season after he completed the 2018 season 11th amongst quarterbacks in fantasy factors per recreation. Trubisky ranks useless final in yards per completion (9.1) and yards per try (5.Eight) amongst certified quarterbacks and is on tempo for 15 whole touchdowns after managing 27 final season. He stays effectively off the fantasy radar besides as a deep-league streamer when the matchup is superb (because it was on Sunday).
Regardless of getting crushed by the Ravens, the Bengals turned to a particularly run-heavy assault in Week 10. Joe Mixon benefited with 30 carries to go together with three targets. Mixon put up a season-high 151 yards, although he failed to seek out the top zone. Extremely, Mixon has three landing receptions, however no speeding scores this season. His 5.Three OTD and 7 carries contained in the opponent’s 5 yard line recommend extra touchdowns are on the best way, nevertheless it’s laborious to count on a lot in a Bengals’ offense sitting 29th in touchdowns per recreation (1.44). Mixon has been irritating, however he is getting heavy quantity and has put collectively back-to-back top-13 fantasy weeks. He is a borderline top-20 choice at operating again.
Kareem Hunt performed 38 (or 58%) of the Browns’ 66 offensive snaps in his Cleveland debut on Sunday. Hunt was restricted to 4 carries, however the larger story was his huge position as a receiver. Hunt lined up at extensive receiver on 9 of his 22 routes and was focused 9 occasions, which trailed solely Odell Beckham Jr. (12) and Jarvis Landry (10) for many on the crew. Regardless of Hunt’s huge position, Nick Chubb nonetheless dealt with 20 carries and 4 targets whereas taking part in 80% of the snaps. It seems the Browns will lean on two-back units, which locks in Chubb as a midrange RB1 and Hunt as a flex choice.
Randall Cobb posted a 6-106-1 receiving line on eight targets throughout Sunday evening’s victory towards Minnesota’s struggling move protection. Regardless of the robust efficiency, Cobb should not be a significant precedence on waivers. Dallas’ slot receiver entered the sport having didn’t clear 69 yards in a single recreation this season. That features fewer than 42 yards in 5 of eight video games. Cobb’s landing was his second this season and his first since Week 1. Cobb, who’s averaging 5.Eight targets per recreation, stays a shaky flex choice in Dallas’ run-first offense.
Determined for some assist at tight finish? Rookie Noah Fant is price a dart throw. The 2019 first-round choose has performed 84% of Denver’s offensive snaps since Emmanuel Sanders was traded after Week 7. That is up from 69% previous to the commerce. Fant entered Denver’s Week 10 bye eighth amongst tight ends in move routes and recent off two of his most efficient video games, having seen eight targets in Week Eight previous to posting a Three-115-1 receiving line in Week 9.
Ty Johnson went down with an harm after solely 11 snaps and 6 touches throughout Sunday’s loss in Chicago. J.D. McKissic (51 snaps) was the subsequent man up, with Paul Perkins (14) additionally concerned. McKissic was held to 55 yards on 16 touches and Perkins to 18 yards on eight touches. McKissic’s position because the crew’s main receiving again has helped him to back-to-back top-20 fantasy weeks. If Johnson misses Week 11, McKissic would clearly be the highest fantasy choice, although he is not more than a flex choice in 12-team leagues.
Inexperienced Bay Packers
It seems Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s days as a starter in Inexperienced Bay are over (not less than for now). The second-year receiver performed 10 snaps on Sunday, which was effectively behind Davante Adams (44), Geronimo Allison (35), Allen Lazard (25) and Jake Kumerow (21). Valdes-Scantling was focused as soon as Sunday and hasn’t cleared three targets in recreation since Week Four. He additionally hasn’t caught a move since Week Eight. Whereas Valdes-Scantling can clearly be dropped, Allison (one weekly fantasy end higher than 46th this season) and Lazard (one weekly end higher than 48th) don’t have to be rostered.
Duke Johnson has performed second fiddle to Carlos Hyde within the carry division this season (149 to 54), however he is solely 29 behind in snaps and has obtained extra targets than his counterpart, 33 to 10. Johnson’s position hasn’t allowed him any top-10 fantasy weeks, however he has produced three top-20 weeks, all of which have come throughout Houston’s previous 4 video games. Granted, Johnson scored in all three video games, however he is offered a stable flooring with eight-plus fantasy factors in six consecutive outings. Johnson is a superb flex choice in PPR leagues.
Going through Miami with each T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell sidelined, Zach Pascal was effectively positioned for an enormous Week 10. As a substitute, the second-year receiver was held to 2 catches for 26 yards on seven targets regardless of taking part in all however one snap. Pascal has reached 19 fantasy factors throughout two of his previous 4 video games, however he has additionally been underneath six factors throughout three of his previous 5 outings. Pascal could have some flex attraction subsequent week towards the Jaguars if Jacoby Brissett returns, however he clearly has a really low flooring.
As touchdowns go, it might be laborious to be extra unfortunate than Leonard Fournette has been this season. Fournette has managed one landing regardless of a 5.Three OTD. That Four.Three hole is well highest amongst operating backs and trails solely Mike Williams (-Four.Four) for largest within the league. Fournette entered the Week 10 bye No. 1 amongst backs in snaps, routes and touches, and ranked third in carries and scrimmage yards. Regardless of the landing troubles, Fournette hasn’t posted every week with fewer than 11 fantasy factors and has 5 top-11 weekly finishes to his identify. Fournette’s landing deficiencies are going to vanish in a rush assuming his position would not change following the bye. He is a robust weekly RB1 play.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
LeSean McCoy was a shock wholesome scratch on Sunday, opening the door for Damien Williams to take full management of the backfield. Williams performed a season-high 74% of the offensive snaps, tallying 109 yards on 24 touches (5 receptions) within the recreation. Williams additionally went over 100 scrimmage yards final week and has now managed back-to-back top-16 fantasy weeks. Williams’ effectivity has been poor (Three.Eight YPC, 5.6 YPT), however he is the clear lead again within the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes-led offense, which locks him in as a stable RB2. Williams needs to be in lineups towards the Chargers in Week 11.
Los Angeles Chargers
What to do with Mike Williams? The unluckiest participant within the landing division this season, Williams has but to seek out the top zone regardless of a Four.Four OTD (35th-highest within the league) and 7 finish zone targets (tied for 10th). Williams has delivered 69-plus receiving yards in 5 of his 9 video games, however the lack of scoring has restricted him to 3 top-25 fantasy weeks, none of which have been higher than 22nd. Williams’ targets are all the way down to Four.75 per recreation over the previous month, which is a priority, but when he continues to see vital work close to the aim line, historical past suggests the touchdowns will come. Williams is a flex choice towards the Chiefs this week.
Los Angeles Rams
One week after placing up 220 yards on seven catches towards the Bengals, Cooper Kupp was held with no single catch on 4 targets towards Pittsburgh. A 2018 Week 6 recreation during which he left with an harm apart, Kupp entered Week 10 with not less than two catches in every of his different 31 profession video games. Kupp has over 100 receiving yards in 5 video games this season, totaling 5 touchdowns throughout these outings. Nevertheless, he additionally has 50 or fewer yards and nil touchdowns in his different 4 video games. Jared Goff’s favourite goal is averaging 10.Zero targets per recreation, and the Rams do not play east of Dallas the remainder of the season, so he is a robust guess for loads of higher efforts. Kupp continues to be within the WR1 dialogue.
With Mark Walton suspended and Kenyan Drake traded to Arizona, Kalen Ballage performed 88% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps on Sunday. The second-year again continued his effectivity struggles, managing solely 43 yards on 20 carries and a couple of yards on 4 targets. Ballage is “up” to 155 yards on 63 touches this season, however he does have a pair of touchdowns (Three.2 OTD). Rookies Patrick Laird (seven snaps) and Myles Gaskin (5) mixed for 5 touches on Sunday, nevertheless it is smart for each to play elevated roles transferring ahead. Heavy quantity could lead on Ballage to a random landing or huge play, however he is a really shaky flex play.
Kyle Rudolph’s mild has shined a bit brighter since Adam Thielen went down with an harm in Week 7. Rudolph was restricted to a complete of 11 targets and nil touchdowns throughout the Vikings’ first six video games, however he has impressed the entire different reindeer with 18 receptions and 4 scores throughout his previous 4 outings. Regardless of the landing manufacturing, Rudolph has cleared three catches and 36 yards in just one recreation this season. Rudolph will likely be on the TE1 radar if Thielen misses extra time, however he will likely be extra of a landing (and/or fog) dependent TE2 as soon as Minnesota’s heavily-targeted No. 1 receiver returns.
New England Patriots
There was some extent this season during which some have been upset that Sony Michel wasn’t getting sufficient goal-line work. A lot for that. Michel entered the crew’s Week 10 bye tied for first within the league with 11 carries contained in the opponent’s 5-yard line. Michel has six touchdowns, which aligns effectively along with his 6.7 OTD (third-highest within the league). Michel has picked up the place he left off in 2018 by dominating the carries (144 is 112 greater than any of his teammates), however he has remained a small a part of the passing recreation (11 targets). Michel has a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks however has completed 37th or worse 5 occasions. Michel is finest seen as a flex choice with further worth in non-PPR leagues.
New Orleans Saints
A lot for limiting his reps. Alvin Kamara returned from a two-game absence Sunday and was on the sphere for 78% of the Saints’ snaps. Kamara carried the ball solely 4 occasions in a surprising loss to Atlanta, however he bailed out fantasy traders with eight catches for 50 yards on 10 targets. Latavius Murray produced seven touches for 19 yards on 25% of the snaps. Kamara’s effectivity (Four.41 YPC, 1.72 YAC, 6.7 YPT) numbers are just under the place he was final season, however an enormous drop in goal-line work and touchdowns (2 TD, Three.Zero OTD) has restricted his fantasy ceiling a bit. Nonetheless, the third-year again has produced three top-10 and three-additional top-25 fantasy weeks in seven video games. He stays a top quality RB1 play.
New York Giants
The Giants might have discovered a gem in Darius Slayton. Granted, it was towards an injury-plagued Jets secondary, however the fifth-round choose went off on Sunday, catching 10 of 14 targets for 121 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Slayton has now scored twice in two of his previous three video games and has 62-plus receiving yards in 4 of eight profession video games. That is the nice. The dangerous is that Slayton additionally has 4 video games with 32 or fewer yards and no touchdowns. Moreover, his goal share is a close to lock to drop considerably if Sterling Shepard returns from his concussion. Slayton needs to be on rosters, however he is a increase/bust play and his weekly attraction will depend upon a number of variables, together with opponent and Shepard’s standing.
New York Jets
Chris Herndon made his de facto 2019 debut on Sunday. The second-year tight finish performed solely 26% of the Jets’ 61 offensive snaps and was then misplaced to a rib harm. In the meantime, Ryan Griffin was on the sphere for 66% of the snaps. Herndon did out-target Griffin 2-to-1 and is actually a candidate for elevated snaps if he returns later this season. In fact, the fractured rib will price him not less than a couple of weeks, so Herndon must be rostered in solely dynasty leagues. Griffin will rating the occasional landing however just isn’t fairly a top-20 tight finish play.
Darren Waller was held to a Three-40-Zero receiving line on 5 targets towards the Chargers in Week 10 and has now has three or fewer catches in three consecutive video games. Actually, Waller has didn’t clear 53 receiving yards throughout 5 of his previous six video games. The drop in manufacturing is clearly a priority, however the excellent news is that Waller’s position hasn’t in any other case modified. He has been on the sphere for 91% of Oakland’s offensive snaps and has run a route on 81% of the move performs. Waller is a robust guess for a rebound recreation in Week 11 with the struggling Bengals on the town.
The Eagles signed previous pal Jordan Matthews final week, however he is an extended shot for constant fantasy success. Eagles extensive receivers not named Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and DeSean Jackson (who has appeared in two video games) have totaled six targets since Week Four. Matthews may, after all, play a bigger position than the likes of Mack Hollins and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, however he’ll nonetheless be competing with Jeffery, Agholor, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard for touches in an Eagles offense that has turned to a run-first assault in current weeks. Matthews is effectively off the fantasy radar.
After hitting a profession excessive with 69 receiving yards in Week 9, James Washington did it once more with 90 yards towards the Rams on Sunday. Washington additionally hit career-best marks in targets (seven) and receptions (six), and he scored his first landing since Week 2 of his rookie season. The 2018 second-round choose’s improve in targets (six-plus throughout three of his previous 4 video games) and improved manufacturing are an excellent signal and definitely motive so as to add him to your bench. Nevertheless, Week 10 marks his first weekly end higher than 34th this season, and he was on the sphere for under 53% of the offensive snaps. Washington is not a dependable flex simply but.
San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel exploded for an Eight-112-Zero receiving line on 11 targets towards Seattle on Monday Night time Soccer. The rookie set new career-high marks in targets, receptions and yards, whereas additionally taking part in his highest share of the snaps (83%) since Week 1. Samuel’s huge evening supplies some optimism for his future fantasy manufacturing. Nevertheless, he actually benefited vastly from the absence of George Kittle (26% goal share by means of Week 9) and Emmanuel Sanders (23% goal share in two begins with the 49ers earlier than leaving Monday’s recreation injured). Samuel entered Week 10 with two weekly finishes higher than 47th and will likely be solely within the WR3/flex combine towards Arizona if Sanders is out.
Jacob Hollister put collectively yet one more robust fantasy effort in Week 10, posting an Eight-62-1 receiving line on a career-high eight targets. This after he managed a Four-37-2 line in Week 9. Hollister has now been focused not less than six occasions in three of his 4 video games. The veteran tight finish has bounced across the league a bit however is an effective pass-catcher and nonetheless solely 25 years previous. The Seahawks simply lead the NFL in finish zone targets, and Hollister will likely be a candidate to deal with a beneficiant chunk of these if he continues to function as Seattle’s main receiving tight finish. Earlier than speeding to the waiver wire, nonetheless, remember that the Seahawks are headed to a bye and can get Ed Dickson again from injured reserve in Week 12.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O.J. Howard scored his first landing of the season and put collectively his finest fantasy level whole (14.7) of the season in Week 10. In fact, the Four-47-1 receiving line on a season-high seven targets got here towards an Arizona protection that has allowed essentially the most fantasy factors to tight ends this season. Previous to the large day, Howard had eclipsed three catches and 35 yards in just one recreation. The underutilized huge man stays a shaky TE2.
The Titans have scored not less than three offensive touchdowns throughout every of Ryan Tannehill’s 4 begins with the crew. The previous Dolphins first-round choose has accounted for not less than two scores throughout every of these video games. Tannehill has a pair of 300-yard video games, a pair of video games with not less than 37 speeding yards and a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks throughout the span. Actually, although it was towards a comparatively mild schedule, Tannehill has completed all 4 of his begins as a top-14 fantasy quarterback. Tannehill is difficult to belief, contemplating his monitor report since he entered the league in 2012, however he has flashed at occasions, together with an eighth-place end again in 2014 and, after all, over the previous month. The Titans are headed to a bye, and Tannehill will likely be a streaming choice –not a should begin — as soon as they return to motion.
Terry McLaurin suffered by means of Washington’s quarterback troubles in current weeks with fewer than 40 yards in three-consecutive video games. That is after managing not less than 62 yards and one landing throughout 4 of his first 5 NFL video games. McLaurin’s 23% goal share locks him into the WR3 dialogue most weeks, however he is actually dangerous in an offense that has gone three consecutive video games with no landing.